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 Tag: Commodities

who is the big gorilla...coal?
by gfsaunders
August 12, 2008 11:29 AM

Who knows or how do you find out who ships what and from where?  As coal demand continues to grow,  would like to know.  Same for other dry bulk cargos.

Thanks for the help.  GFS



Comments (2)



DRYS @ $150.00 + by September 26th, 2008
by p7773login
August 08, 2008 08:52 PM

      DryShips stock is set to explode. Lets see why.

#1) Value

     As of today (8/08/08) DRYS closed at $67.89 (about 2.5 Billion market capitalization)= a PE of about 4.2. Now lets put those numbers into perspective. Lets say I were to buy the company right now for 2.5 Billion. DryShips has Equity well over 1 Billion. So my risk would be less then 1.5 Billion (60%). In other words if I bought this company and then had zero customers the most I could possibly lose in the absolute worst case secenario is 60% of my initial investment. However in reality DRYS is far from being unprofitable. The company has a 1 year EPS growth rate of 658%, and the Q1,08 earnings beat Q1,07 by 309%. Lets say Tom earned $10 per hour last year, with this kind of earnings growth Tom would courently be making $309 to $658 per hour, and next year he would make $1,263 to $4,987 per hour. (I wish I had Tom's job) Now obviously DRYS can't continue to grow 300% - 650%, but it is logical to conclude that we will continue to see some increase in earnings over the next few years. As the sole owner of DryShips, even if DRYS had 0% growth, I would still put about $600 Million a year in my pocket. This means that with absolutly no growth, in three years I would have a 100% return on my investment and a perpetual income of $600 Million.

     Let's be realistic, If I call DryShips tomorrow and make a cash bid of $2.5 Billion for the business the offer would be considered for about 2 seconds and declined. So how much money would I have to offer to even be taken serious? If you owned this business, (that was putting at least $600 Million a year in your pocket) how much money would it take for you even to consider selling it? An amount equal to your next 5 years salary, 10 years, 20? Personally I would need an amount equal to at least my next 10 years salary to even consider it. That would be about a $6 Billion starting bid, this is 2.4x the 2.5 Billion it is curently being traded at. In other words it would be silly to even think about selling DRYS for anything less than $160.00 a share. So the question is who's selling DRYS for $67.89 a share. Not me. This takes us to point #2.

#2) Risky Shorts

      There is an unreasonable amount of short intrest in this stock. You can go to www.nasdaqtrader.com after the market closes on Monday to see the most current short information. Every time the stock begins to move close to an almost reasonable price the stock is attacked. A strategy that has proved very sucessful so far. The shorts scare the daytraders who scare the market into panic selling. The problem for the shorts is that the trick is geting old. A pattern is becoming clear, and (as mentioned) the stocks current value is WAY higher then the current share price[$250 according to Standard & Poor's]. Sooner or later when the stock jumps and gets attacked by the shorts some very wise individuals are going to take advantage and buy triggering a short squeeze that should be followed by a nice rally leaving shares at a reasonable price, around $140 - $180.

#3) Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

      Although the BDI shouldn't have a dramatic affect on the share price, many investors keep a close eye on it. You can see the current days BDI report at www.dryships.com , it's usually posted by 9:00 A.M. The BDI has been down for the last 21 days and is likely responsible for holding the stock below $70. Alot of buyers are geting an itchy trigger finger with an eye on the BDI. Think of pushing a rubber ball under water, you can only push it so far until it slips and shoots up. It's likely that  the next up day in the BDI will equal big jump for DRYS.



Comments (2)



golden ocean group
by 2312paul
June 27, 2008 04:35 AM

I agree with you. Ihave started tracking this stock and believe its a BUY

Comments (0)






 

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