Don't Panic
by Richard Meade
Lloyd's List

December 29, 2008 12:00 PM



BLIND optimism is as unhelpful as the unremitting negativity that appears to have taken a hold over the market in recent months.

The situation facing us for 2009 is not a particularly pleasant one for any of us, but veering between unconstructive panic and blithely hoping that things will pick up eventually is not an approach likely to win many friends, or indeed contracts.

According to the eminently sensible members of the Asian Shipowners’ Forum, what we need is a calmer and more cautious approach to the supply-demand situation in 2009 and beyond.

Noting the “urgent and extraordinary” measures pledged last month by the leaders of the G20 countries to stimulate the world economy, the ASF issued its own take on the downturn for the shipping industry to consider.

Bearing in mind that the crisis could be a good opportunity to make a comprehensive review of their business models, delegates at the ASF meeting were encouraged to calmly consider the underlying implication of the crisis.

The ASF agreed it was important for chief executives of Asian shipping companies to carefully examine cost factors and to make every effort to keep customers well informed of the actual difficult situation faced by carriers.

The bosses of Asian shipping companies were also urged to deal with the situation in the transpacific and intra-Asia trades in a “rational and patient manner with confidence to make business decisions based on long-term overall strategies”.

This is sound advice, but perhaps easier said than done, particularly when the global outlook continues to deteriorate. It seems the International Monetary Fund will be updating its forecast for the world economy in January and the figures are likely to be worse that those made public in November, ahead of the G20 meeting that the ASF refers to.

Global economic meltdown aside, we should not be seen to be panicking. Urgent and extraordinary measures may well be in order but there is no reason we can not carry them out in a manner that instils the calm confidence that the ASF clearly thinks we should aspire to.



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November 16, 2009 08:54 AM

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