Weighing up risk
by Richard Meade
Lloyd's List

March 17, 2009 12:00 PM



THE industry has talked openly for years about acceptable levels of risk when it comes to safety, but can there ever be an ‘acceptable’ level of piracy?

It seems clear that naval operations in the Gulf of Aden are having a positive effect on security in the region.

Successful attacks on vessels are down and with a clear legal mandate to prosecute pirates now supporting the arsenal of military hardware on offer, it seems the risk-reward balance could be tipping back in favour of the shipowner.

But without a sustained naval presence in the region, experts agree that the significant gains of the past few months could very quickly be lost.

Maintaining political engagement long term will be difficult for the industry once this issue inevitably drops off the mainstream media’s radar.

Once the spotlight fades, the multi-million dollar budgets for anti-piracy operations may not seem such an urgent priority for governments struggling to bail out their own economies.

The hope is that by this time a more sustainable solution will be in place. Capacity building projects on land, regional support and involvement, together with a UN commitment to long-term support for Somalia are ultimately the best hope of an enduring political solution.

However, it is unlikely that we will see the benefit of such projects any time soon.

Until we do, it is likely that both governments and the pirates will keep a close eye on the risk-reward balance and asking themselves what they can get away with.



Tags:  


Comments (1)
Post a comment


Posted by:  ski
March 19, 2009 04:55 AM

It is funny you mention risk in your blog.  I had just finished a similar post for our group.  Chinaversy alert! The ironic part of this situation (Chinaversy) is that I am a shipping investor, and do not want any of the China bad to be true.  Yet long before I was a investing partner in world trade, I was a military man.  From a strategic point, I was quickly suspicious of the entire industry, when I began to be informed of the somewhat mysterious business of the merchant fleet.  What do you mean we don’t have American boats?  You were kidding about America not having a group of young well educated, Marine Officers driving those big boats around, right?  Your pulling my leg about how many shipyards are in China alone, the world fleet does not need that many yards !  So those boats aren’t made in Newport News, Who did you say was driving that boat into our crowded harbor? and on and on.  Remember the board game RISK?China looks like the big player on the board.  In this looks can be deceiving!  The problem I have in dismissing these doomsday theories is the almost daily supply of China “moves” that anyone who has ever played the game “Risk” can easily recognize.  But for China’s play to be practical, the Japenese fleet must be eliminated.  There is no Love lost between these neighbors, as history has shown.  The Island of Japan has not been laying back as a pacifist, bowing to the huge former enemy’s intentions.  Japan has a large fleet of bulkers, and a Maritime Officer infrastructure that is producing the future Masters faster than any other nation.  And China still has a natural rival in their quest for domination of the water, across the Mediterranean.  For every effort China expends against Japan, the Greeks will enjoy another benefit of sorts.  To me as a Greek investor by proxy, I will hope Japan can continue to go toe to toe with its arch enemy.  I will gladly service the rest of the world, while the Asians do battle over Australia.  They both want what the desert strip mines of Australia produce, although the coastal coal is an added attraction down under.  A dynamic to consider at this stage of economic decay would be a forward thinking rationalization, that to extend survival time the Japs will coddle Greece, to the contraire of China.  What a notion I proposed.  The wealthy shipping families of Japan, working more closely with the islanders of Greece.   Back to the equities.Bottom line is I don’t see China taking over the world’s oceans as fast as they would like to, but I still hold to the idea that supremacy in fact is their goal.  Cooperation like NM currently enjoys with Japan will be enhanced in the future, and I intend to make money off the affair as a dryshipper ya know!  It is clearly not in Japan’s best interest to see the Greek fleet scuttled.  Maybe some Greekanese partnerships?  Who knows for sure!  But all riskplayers will tell you, that Japan shipping will not let Greek shipping fail.  You can take that to the bank. Watch you freeboardsSki@dryshippers.com   


You must be logged in to post comments.  Log in now or sign up for an account.

    Archives
» November, 2009
» October, 2009
» September, 2009
» August, 2009
» July, 2009
» June, 2009
» May, 2009
» April, 2009
» March, 2009
» February, 2009

Categories
» Baltic Exchange
» Blank Check Companies
» Commodities
» Conference Calls
» Containers
» Drybulk
» Drybulk-London listed
» European Listed Companies
» FFA's
» General Shipping Industry
» Inland Marine Transportation
» LPG-LNG
» LPG/LNG
» Mixed Fleet
» Mixed Fleet-London listed
» New Buildings
» Offshore Transportation
» Oil & Energy
» Presentations
» S&P Market
» Tankers
» Vessel Fixings
» Vessel Fixtures

Shipping Companies Blogs
» Aegean Marine Petroleum (ANW)
» Alexander & Baldwin Inc. (ALEX)
» Alliance Holdings GP, L.P. (AHGP)
» Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP)
» Alpha Natural Resources, Inc. (ANR)
» American Commercial Lines (ACLI)
» AP Moller-Maersk A (MAERSK-A)
» Arcade Acquisition Corp. (ACDQ)
» ArcelorMittal (MT)
» Arch Coal, Inc. (ACI)
» Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM)
» Aries Maritime (RAMS)
» Atlas Iron Ltd. (AGO.AX)
» Atwood Oceanics Inc. (ATW)
» B & H Ocean (BHO)
» BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP)
» BP plc (BP)
» Bunge Limited (BG)
» Capital Product Partners (CPLP)
» Chevron Corporation (CVX)
» China Steel Corp. (CISXF.PK)
» Cia. Vale do Rio Doce (RIO)
» Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SID)
» ConocoPhilillips (COP)
» CONSOL Energy, Inc. (CNX)
» d'Amico International Shipping S.A. (DIS.IT)
» Danaos Corp. (DAC)
» Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. (DO)
» Diana Shipping (DSX)
» Double Hull (DHT)
» DryShips (DRYS)
» Eagle Bulk (EGLE)
» ENI S.P.A. (E)
» Ensco International Inc. (ESV)
» Euroseas (ESEA)
» Excel Maritime (EXM)
» Exxon Mobile Corp. (XOM)
» Fortescue Metal Group (FSUMF.PK)
» Freeseas (FREE)
» Frontline (FRO)
» Genco Shipping (GNK)
» General Maritime (GMR)
» Global Ship Lease, Inc. (GSL)
» Globus Maritime Ltd (GLBS.L)
» Golar LNG (GLNG)
» Goldenport Holdings (GPRT.L)
» Grupo TMM S.A.B. (TMM)
» GulfMark Offshore, Inc. (GLF)
» Hellenic Carriers Limited (HCL.L)
» Hercules Offshore, Inc. (HERO)
» Horizon Lines, Inc. (HRZ)
» Hornbeck Offshore Services (HOS)
» International Shipholding Corporation (ISH)
» K-SEA Transportation Partners LP (KSP)
» Kirby Corporation (KEX)
» Knightsbridge (VLCCF)
» Natural Resources Partners L.P. (NRP)
» Navios Holdings (NM)
» Navios Maritime Acquisition Corp. (NNA)
» Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NMM)
» Nippon Steel ADR (NISTY.PK)
» Noble Corp. (NE)
» Nordic American (NAT)
» Nucor Corporation (NUE)
» OceanFreight (OCNF)
» Omega Navigation (ONAV)
» OSG America LP (OSP)
» Overseas Shipholding Group (OSG)
» Paragon Shipping (PRGN)
» Penn Virginia Resource Partners, L.P. (PVR)
» Petrobras Energia Participacion (PZE)
» PetroChina Co Ltd. (PTR)
» POSCO (PKX)
» Pride International Inc. (PDE)
» Repsol YPF, S.A. (REP)
» Rio Tinto plc (RTP)
» Rowan Companies Inc. (RDC)
» Royal Dutch Shell Plc CL ‘B’ (RDS-B)
» Safe Bulkers (SB)
» Seacor Holdings (CKH)
» Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. (SHIP)
» Seaspan Corp. (SSW)
» Ship Finance (SFL)
» Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (SBLK)
» StealthGas (GASS)
» TBS International (TBSI)
» Teekay LNG (TGP)
» Teekay Offshore Partners L.P. (TOO)
» Teekay Shipping (TK)
» Teekay Tankers Ltd. (TNK)
» Tidewater Inc. (TDW)
» Top Ships (TOPS)
» TORM (TRMD)
» Total S.A. (TOT)
» Transocean, Inc. (RIG)
» Tsakos Energy Navigation (TNP)
» Ultrapetrol (ULTR)
» US Shipping Partners LP (USSPZ)
» Xstrata plc (XSRAF.PK)




  ©  Copyright 1996-2009. Capital Link, Inc. All rights reserved.

visit:   www.capitallink.com  |  www.capitallinkcyprus.com  |  www.closedendfundforum.com  |  www.capitallinkforum.com  |  www.irprofiles.com


Disclaimer & Terms Of Use. The information herein is not an offer to buy or sell any kind of securities nor does it constitute investment advice of any kind. Capital Link does not represent or warrant the accuracy of the information in this site. The user of the site acknowledges that he/she accesses the information at his/her own risk and cannot hold Capital Link liable for any matter in any way. Please read full disclaimer and terms of use.