Cautious optimism
by Richard Meade
Lloyd's List

May 05, 2009 12:00 PM



QUITE apart from being an unforgivable journalistic cliché, it is still only the most optimistic among us that have started talking about green shoots.

Nevertheless, if the frequency with which this phrase is used can be taken as an indicator of sentiment, then perhaps we can take heart that things may finally be looking up.

Danaos’s tentative declaration last week that the worst is over in the box markets was a welcome respite from the doom-laden forecasts we have become accustomed to. That these comments came in the same week that BW Maritime spotted some “potential improvements” in the furthest reaches of the tanker market is surely confirmation that positive thinking has not been completely eradicated from the industry.

And these are not lone voices. ABS chairman Bob Sommerville has spotted a silver lining in the gathering clouds over class societies and some voices in the broking community are now talking excitedly about figures that suggest the era of lay-ups is coming to end.

This background hum of optimism is of course a welcome development and there is a lot to be said for the psychological effects of positive thinking in a market that has been overwhelmed of late by negative news and sentiment.

We should, however put these encouraging signs in the wider context. The spectre of overcapacity is not going away in a hurry and even the most upbeat of market commentators is unlikely to be surprised if we see more casualties before this cycle is over.

If we must use the analogy of green shoots we should remember that they are delicate and not all will flourish if they are being raised in a harsh climate.



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Posted by:  shipfinance
May 06, 2009 10:49 AM

Good one!


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