Early on, I reminded readers that they would not find detailed economic forecasts here; my brand of forecasting is more subtle, looking at the moods. At the CMA, they said that attendance was down a tiny bit from last year's "Top of the Bubble" event, but standing in the throng, it felt as crowded as any year in recent memory. At Capital Link's event, there were many more people than in the previous two years.

One theory of crowded conferences suggests that underemployed shipping denizens have lots of extra time to hang around. But that was not the case; the deal makers were out in force. But, of course, the buzz is fuelled by hope, as much as anything else. Many of the speakers pointed to the need for economic activity and demand to pick up. At the CMA, Craig Stevenson, as good a market-timer as any (having sold OMI at the top, I mean the top top top of the tanker cycle two years ago), offered that: "You can't scrap your way to prosperity…it takes a pickup in the demand side", in response to suggestions that increased vessel demolitions will help the supply/ demand balance. More pointedly, he said that: "You need banking to recover before shipping can recover…" At both conferences, I heard about deliveries of containerships from building yards being deferred. It's not the increase in demand cited by Mr. Stevenson, but it helps push financial obligations further out into the future.

Nevertheless, the recent announcements from Dryships (DRYS) and Excel Maritime (EXM), noting waivers of covenants (in both cases), the ATM offering having raised $380 Million so far (DRYS) and additional infusions from company insiders (EXM) will be topping up cash accounts. I have been wondering, like everyone else, about the next shoe to drop. Yet, so far, I heard neither a shoe dropping nor an auctioneer's gavel dropping after a visit from the repo man. Golden Ocean, not at either conference, has now an announced an aggressive restructure where a major shipping investor will put money in, and will sell bond debt back to the company (see that various cross-defaults won't get tripped).

At the Capital Link reception following the Conference, in the library upstairs at the Metropolitan Club, I met an old friend of mine, a retired maritime finance lawyer who frequented the various New York clubs when he was active. In conversation, I asked him whether he would consider coming out of retirement, since "…this is like the greatest time ever to be a maritime lawyer, with all the difficulties banks are having….", or some words to that effect. After telling me about the joys of life outside New York, he went on to offer a view that we are in a cyclical business, and what we are seeing might be severe, but it's still within the realm of normal. He was rather non-plussed, and was not rushing back to the Big Apple to handle loan workouts.

Earlier that day, Harris Antoniou, from Fortis Nederland, had told the assembled group that the much reported "Letter of Credit" difficulties were not really a factor in the bulk shipping businesses. Such moments remind me that you can't always believe what you read in the shipping press, which, after all, need to scare people a bit to keep subscribers glued to their screens (21st century) or newspapers (20th century). At the same Capital Link event, General Maritime Corporation's top finance man, Jeff Pribor, had also alluded to the cyclical nature of things and how company strategy is dictated by understanding where we are in the cycle. The key take-away is that shipping people have been through these storms before. Some of the "problems" may come from investors who jumped on shipping's bull run during this decade, and did not live through the all crises in the 1960's (well not too many then), 1970's, and 1980's that brought fame, fortune and club memberships to my retired lawyer friend.

Those dour economists over at Standard and Poors are now pod-casting that "The economic slide is slowing down." Looking further a big picture financial developments, the world equity markets seem to be building a bottom, based partly on surprisingly expansive G-20 event. I am not an equity market technician, but I would say that shipping people keenly watch the bigger indicators. And, like any good captain, if they see clearing skies after enduring a terrible storm, they will then rev up the engines, and go just a little faster.