Speaking of routings, I did catch some flack for the blog late last year about the pirates, whose audacity is continuing although the good guys seem to better organized than they were late last year. What emerged from the Hells Kitchen conversations was a sense that the shipping market would always surprise- no matter how sophisticated the analytical tools and economic models. Pirates are an example- how, exactly, do you factor them in? One tanker guy who had seen some of my economic prognostications took me aside and reminded me that the best economic models can be flummoxed by bad weather in the Caribbean and the Bosphorus. As ships queue up, rates and earnings go up.

The investment types I talked to said that they enjoyed the authenticity of such gatherings, and the chance to get perspectives that are sometimes filtered by the analysts- who play an important role in assimilating massive amounts of market information. The shipping types who attend Mike’s saloon-based salon welcomed the chance to see reactions and hear the comments of money-men who were concerned with the latest batch of dividend cuts, loan renegotiations and the like. But, still, cargo continues to move- there’s just less of it than last Spring when the salon was held at Mickey Mantle’s, at Blue Smoke, or in August at P.J. Morans and Maggie’s Place.

Blog readers may be wondering whether they’ve stumbled into a restaurant review (perhaps your humble blogger sent in a file meant for the lifestyle section of the New York Post). But, no- this is all about shipping, and such gatherings are critical for all the varied “stakeholders” (and steak eaters). The whole circuit of conferences offers a marvelous opportunity for everybody to mix and mingle. Indeed, the Mickey Mantle’s event mentioned above occurred following a Capital Link event last March. In particular, the Norwegian – American and Hellenic – American Chambers of Commerce will be putting on an excellent event in early Feburary in midtown Manhattan. Anybody trying to get the pulse of the market should try to attend. Much of the talk will center on questions of transparency- if you are inside a bubble, can you see out? Everyone is trying to gain a sense of place- where are we in the cycle? Was it bubble bursting? Or one of those bubbles that got deflated, but has the structural characteristics to re-inflate? I was particularly intrigued by a group of speakers from the world of industrial raw materials. Rather than the usual conference hacks, these guys might have less polished presentations, but may offer a fresh perspective on questions that folks in the Imarex sessions were pondering.

After the recent Hudson Yards confab ended, I walked over to Penn Station with one of the private equity investors who has been involved with some well known deals. As he explained to me, folks like him were already getting positioned to find the next deals, or, in his words, “…the next group of Billionaires are already getting started on their plans…” Though we can’t see the results of such scheming for ten, maybe twenty years, as the cycles do their thing, my friend was probably right. And, from the dinner conversation earlier in the night, I can say that I will be looking closely at shipping companies that add value to complicated logistical processes.