Strait talking required
by Richard Meade
Lloyd's List

July 01, 2008 02:12 PM



THE market is a notoriously jittery character at the best of times, but in the current economic climate its nerves are on show. No surprise then that the distant sound of sabres being rattled around the Strait of Hormuz has sent the price of oil back on its upwards spiral this week.

The strategic importance of this waterway cannot be overstated. Oil flows through the Strait account for around 40% of all globally traded oil supply, and then there are the oil products and LNG, notably from the world’s largest exporter Qatar, to consider.

Put into that context it is perhaps understandable that talk of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards mining the strait in the event of Israel stepping up threatened hostilities has been enough to grab the attention of the market.

The US has been quick to send a clear message that it will not be allowed to hamper oil shipments, but OPEC’s second largest crude producer is not without leverage on the international stage and should not be written off as powerless in any scenario.

This of course is not the first time that such threats have been publicly aired and will not be the last, but anyone who remembers the ‘tanker war’ of the 1980s will have some idea of the potential mayhem that a conflict in that region could cause.

Shipping in the Gulf plunged by 25% as a result of that exchange forcing intervention from the US to secure the shipping lanes. A similar disruption to oil supplies in the current climate is an unthinkable scenario to consider.



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