Cheer for now
by Richard Meade
Lloyd's List

August 29, 2008 09:07 PM



WHEN the new deputy governor of the Bank of England starts upgrading what was an ‘economic malaise’ into an episode likely to rival the Great Depression of the 1930s, you know that it is going to be a bad week.

Sure enough, the current flurry of second half results have been accompanied by identikit statements from weary executives pinning their dip in performance on rising fuel costs and the ever mysterious macro-economic conditions.

Not to be outdone by his rivals, Brostrom’ chief executive Lennart Simonsson added in for good measure a mild European winter, volatile spot rates, declining trade, and European sulphur controls hitting Russian exports.

The results are there to see across the sectors. Both Color Line and NCL have resorted to lay-offs in a bid to battle the seemingly endless march upwards in fuel costs. They are unlikely to be the last. If the International Energy Agency is to be believed the oil market has now changed for good and anyone eagerly waiting for oil to slip back under $100 a barrel before 2013 is going to be sorely disappointed and probably out of business.

Little surprise then that unexpected signs of strength in the US economy have prompted a few cheers from the market. The week that started with a great depression in Europe ended with the prozac pill of second quarter US growth exceeding expectations.

Considering much of the doom-laden predictions from box lines this week have focussed on a continued slowdown in US growth, this will be a welcome relief for many.

Of course, at the same time it does underscore the way in which the US is exporting its economic slowdown through the trade channel to the rest of the world, but presumably we can worry about that next week.



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