HINDSIGHT is a marvellous thing, particularly for journalists well-versed in the art of smugly pointing out warning signs after the event.

Musings on the cause and effect of the credit crunch, as it has now officially been trademarked, are an essential component of any news story, whether the hack in question is offering any insight or not. But where were these financial Cassandras when the US subprime brains were gaily mixing up the initial batch of home-cooked doom for the markets?

As if to compensate, there now seems to be a race to identify the impending crisis du jour and build the consequences into business models.

The issue of unproven new yards, particularly in China, has particularly caught the imagination over recent months.

Concerns about quality, issues of refund guarantees and enforceability, massive hikes in steel prices catching yards unawares all suggest a certain amount of slippage in the current orderbook.

If that particular argument does not fit your thinking, how about the prospect of a slow down in the global economy resulting in over supply issues (China set to hit the buffers by October anyone?). Ship values will plummet and the race to cancel orders begins.

How much? Many are quoting authoritative figures of 20%, 25%, 35% and use this to justify their continued rosy outlook for the bulk sector. But the inconvenient truth is that much of this speculation is printed, regurgitated, repeated and taken as fact.

This is a dangerous game of guesswork we are playing. The warning signs are plain to see this time round, but is anyone listening?